Syria and Europe: Lessons from the Nineteenth Century

Arab Spring [LP] (Photo credit: Painted Tapes)

Popular demonstrations are taking place across the region's capital cities.

Rioters are demanding political reform, greater freedoms and the removal of the old dictators.

An economic crisis has been a catalyst for a wave of popular uprisings across the continent by the growing educated middle classes.

Liberal reform is everywhere, opposed by entrenched political elites.

Should foreign troops be deployed in support of the protesters?

The Arab Spring?

No - Europe in the early decdes of the nineteenth century.

Following the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 and the subsequent Congress of Vienna, liberal and republican movements took to the streets in cities as diverse as Manchester (1819), Lisbon (1820), Paris and Brussels (both 1830), and Rome (1831). The protests were often violent, resulting in many deaths. In some countries, elements of the armed forces joined with the rebels.

Protests were often put down, not only by national governments and their armies, but also through intervention by allied powers - Austrian forces into northern Italy, British troops to Portugal and French soldiers into neighbouring Spain. Elites defended one another against the growing tide of liberal and republican sentiment.

Comparisons with the Arab Spring and its related uprisings are especially relevant in examining the experience of Greece during this age of revolution. A revolution broke out in 1821, aimed at freeing Greece from the rule of the Ottoman Empire and establishing a liberal constitution for the country. This aim was only partly realised when the Ottomans received military support from the Egyptian viceroy Muhammed Ali, whose troops seized a large part of the Greek mainland by 1826.  Only the southern part of the country remained free enough to sustain its independence from Ottoman rule. 

Fast forward two centuries, and the comparisons with events in the Middle East and North Africa are striking.

 

 

  

  




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God, The Ash and the Business Backlash

It's noticeable that elements within the business community are starting to increase their efforts to have Europe's flying ban lifted as soon as possible. This is understandable, of course, since the airline industry is losing millions of pounds through its forced inactivity this week.

BBC business editor Robert "Good-in-a-Crisis" Peston is quoted today as saying that the disruption to airlines risks becoming a "major business and economic disaster" which may place several European airlines in financial difficulty.

The International Air Transport Association, meanwhile, has warned that airlines will lose at least £130m each day that they cannot fly.

It is no surprise, therefore, to find KLM and Lufthansa trying out "test flights" this weekend in order to see if it is safe for planes to fly. No doubt, they hope to convince the various authorities of their case.

For the thinking Christian, the disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano raises a number of important issues, questions and opportunities:

1. Since they serve a God about whom the Psalms declare, "stormy winds do his bidding", they must conclude that God has either decreed or permitted the prevailing jet stream to blow the volcanic ash over Europe, as opposed to into the Atlantic or the Arctic.
2. In ascribing this act to God, they may discern within it both his mercy and his judgement. Examples of the former quality are numerous. Firstly, they can be grateful that, so far, no human life has been lost through this powerful display of nature and that destruction to the towns and villages in the immediate area of the Icelandic volcano and glacier has been minimal; secondly, they can be thankful for the technology that enables human beings to predict and anticipate the impact of the ash upon aircraft. Much better to suffer the current disruption than to have woken two days ago to stories of numerous planes falling out of the sky without warning.
   
3. On the issue of God's judgement, Christians should recognise the biblical reality of judgement in this age, as well as in the age to come. This huge topic cannot be explored adequately in this post - and no doubt the usual suspects will soon be making sweeping and ridiculous statements about the issue before too long. To say nothing about the reality of judgement in this age, however, only hands the subject over to the extremists. It is a topic that must be addressed. The portrayal in the Bible of God's judgement on the city of Babylon - the graphic symbol of a society in every age obsessed with greed, sex and godlessness - does include judgement upon her commercial activity:

"The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no-one buys their cargoes any more—

cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls ... of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep .... and bodies and souls of men.

......

The merchants who sold these things and gained their wealth from her will stand far off, terrified at her torment. They will weep and mourn and cry out:

'Woe! Woe, O great city, dressed in fine linen, purple and scarlet, and glittering with gold, precious stones and pearls!

In one hour such great wealth has been brought to ruin!' "

(Revelation 18)

It would be ridiculous, of course, to claim that the current airline disruption is an exact fulfillment of this ancient biblical prophecy! Indeed, the final reality will, if the passage is read in full, be much worse.

However, it is possible to identify within the judgement passages of both the old and new testaments, themes which can inform our understanding of the nature, extent and purpose of divine judgement in every age.

If it true that global warming is happening, and that it is largely caused by human activity, and if it is true that the world's poorest are those most affected by climate change, then surely it is not too far-fetched to see behind the current forced grounding of European flights the activity of a sovereign God, who "secures justice for the poor".

Specifically, can we discern a voice from heaven saying, "Enough of your greed; enough of your luxury" and within that, a call to Europe (and elsewhere) to build more sustainable economies - ones that do not contribute to environmental and economic degradation among the poorest in the world?

It is to be hoped that, over the silence of the runways in this early summer, human beings are able to hear and respond to this still, small voice.

Image credit Sverrir Thor.

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Another Reason to Dispair at the EU

This from the EU-funded Samuri surveillance system - whose aim is to create the "next generation" of CCTV:

Existing systems focus on analysing recorded video. SAMURAI is to develop a real-time adaptive behaviour profiling and abnormality detection system for alarm event alert and prediction.

We aim to develop an abnormal detection system based on a heterogeneous sensor network consisting of both fix-positioned CCTV cameras and mobile wearable cameras with audio and positioning sensors.

These networked heterogeneous sensors will function cooperatively to provide enhanced situation awareness.

I notice that the ever-reliable and ethically impeccable BAA are major players in this monstrous supra-government-funded initiatve, which WE DON'T NEED.

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Portugal: a Model for National Drug Policy?

Facts can be inconvenient things.

Take the recent report on the effects of drug decriminalisation in Portugal by Glenn Greenwald of the Cato Institute, for instance.

The reality is, as explained in the report, that the policy line taken by Portugal in 2001 - to totally decriminalise all drugs - has neither resulted in Lisbon becoming a centre for drug tourism nor in rises in drug use.

The report, in fact, shows that in many significant ways, drug use has decreased, especially in the socially significant 13-18 year-old age groups.

Before getting too excited (or angry) about this, it is worth clarifying what actually took place in Portuguese law in 2001:

• The possession and personal use of drugs remained illegal but was decriminalised. This means that the action was treated as an administrative issue and had no criminal implications or penalties attached to it
  
• The emphasis of social policy shifted from a punitive approach to one of public health , with much greater emphasis placed on users seeking access to treatment programmes, without the fear of arrest or the stigma of receiving a criminal record
  
• this approach is different from that of "de-penalisation" in which the act of using or possessing drugs remains criminal but is rarely punished in practice (an approach taken in part by several EU states especially around cannabis use)
• drug trafficking (defined in Portugeuse law as "possession of more than the average dose for ten days of use") remains a criminal offence in Portugal, punishable by custodial sentences.

The report emphasises that the change in the law in 2001 was aimed strongly at reducing drug use nationally. The evidence after eight years is that the policy is having an effect. The report makes compelling reading and suggests a possible way forward in the issue of public policy on drug misuse.

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Post Democracy: a Review

Colin Crouch's short and provocative work Post-democracy asks why and then suggests reasons for the departure of historic left-of-centre political parties across Europe from their traditional role of being political voices for those disadvantaged by unrestrained capitalism.

His analysis is rooted in 1) the rise of the global firm 2) the decline in the size of the manual working classes 3) the loss of confidence in the idea of a separate public sector distinct from the interests of business.

The analysis is broad in its scope - Professor Crouch's academic focus includes Europe-wide political behaviour - as well as memorable in its style. Good points are well made throughout the book, a work which has its roots in a number of papers produced for the Fabian Society and The Political Quarterly.

The book's central thesis is persuasively argued: that western nations have passed the historic high point of mass democratic action (which he locates in the mid-twentieth century) and have entered a phase in which many of the outward activities of democracy remain (universal suffrage, elected government, etc.) but in which direct political activity by large numbers of citizens has been replaced with government by elected elites.

This thesis stands in opposition to the idea that democracy in the Internet age is as strong as ever. While the proliferation of special interest groups is a fact of modern political life, Crouch argues that this atomising of the activity of citizens, at the expense of concerted party political action, actually confirms the reality of post-democracy. These individual groups are insufficient in their breadth of focus to achieve significant structural and legal changes to restrain the hegemony of global firms, with their well-resourced access through lobbies to the handles of governmental influence and power.

Commenting on the rise of global businesses run by elite professionals with limited loyalty (and tax obligations) to any specific nation state, Professor Crouch notes that,

"In many respects this resembles the situation in pre-Revolutionary France, where the monarchy and aristocracy were exempt from taxation but monopolized political power, while the middle classes and peasantry paid taxes but had no political rights."

The author's portrayal of the role of central government in the post-democratic age is as frightening as it is recognisable. The "ellipse" of government, which now includes lobby groups allied to large firms as well as public-private partnerships has, says Crouch, resulted in governments which are similar in their structure and nature to the business with which they allied, though paradoxically weaker as they have handed over large areas of activity and expertise to private firms.

Such governments increasingly outsource many of their traditional functions (education, health care, transport) and increasingly see their role as facilitating the operations of businesses within the economy.

Based at the European University Institute in Florence, Crouch cites the Belisconi regime as emblematic of the post-democratic government:

"In the early 1990s....Silvio Berlusconi...rapidly filled the [political] vacuum ... by pooling resources from his extensive network of enterprises ... television channels, a publishing house, a major football club, a financial empire, a leading supermarket chain... Initially, Forza Italia had no members or activists at all as such. Many of the functions normally filled by volunteers were carried out by the employees of Berlusconi's various enterprises.... Forza Italia is an example of a political party that ... is essentially a firm rather than an organisation of the classic party type; it did not emerge from any formulation of interests by social groups, but was a construction built up by parts of the existing political and financial elite."

Rather than being the voice of mass political empowerment, the mass media is portrayed by Professor Crouch as a specific type of global firm. Examples of the effect of the dependence of post-democratic governments upon the mass media abound:

"We have become accustomed to hear politicians not speaking like normal people, but presenting glib and finely honed statements which have a character all of their own."

"Advertising is not a form of rational dialogue... Its aim is not to engage in discussion but to persuade to buy. Adoption of its methods has helped politicians to cope with the problems of communicating to a mass public; but it has not served the cause of democracy itself."

"Promotion of the claimed charismatic qualities of a party leader, and pictures and film footage of his or her person striking appropriate poses, increasingly take the place of debate over issues and conflicting interests."

As a specific example of this trend, Crouch cites "The exceptional Californian gubernatorial election of 2003, when the film actor Arnold Schwarzenegger waged a successful campaign with no policy content."

Accustomed as we are to being told that the public interest is served when business thrives ( a new spin on the maxim that "What's good for General Motors is good for America") , Professor Crouch's book is a well-argued reminder that there are human (and indeed, environmental) interests that are not fully served by such "success" when it is narrowly defined as generating shareholder bonuses and when these successes are achieved by firms exercising disproportionate power over the political process.

The final chapter ("Where do we go from here?") is, in my mind, the weakest part of the book, as it understandably takes a macro view of this question in 20 pages, providing only the broadest of suggestions of how citizens in a post-democratic age could begin to reengage in the political process through discovering their shared identity and interests and expressing them through both political parties and special interest groups.

Overall, this is an important book that, to me at least, had the effect of putting together a number of observable economic and political trends which, until reading it, had appeared to me as separate developments.

At 135 pages, the book is readily digestible and is well referenced for further reading . It also forms part of a series published by Polity which includes such titles as War and Power in the 21st Century, Governing the World Economy and Surveillance after September 11. If the tone and style of these other titles is as good as Post-democracy, then I will have stumbled upon a useful resource.

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Shape Note Singing

Just picked up the video from a friend on Facebook.

I thought I had a reasonable (though fairly general) grasp of traditional American musical styles. I had obviously missed this one!

There's a good article on shape note singing on Wikipedia here and on the Sacred Harp variety, which is a traditional Protestant version of the choral form.

If you don't want to click on the links, here is Shape Note Singing in a nutshell:

• the music is written with shaped notes corresponding to the notes in the musical scale, enabling easier reading of the melody for those not trained in formal notation
  
• there are four-note and seven-note systems of notation
• it's been around in written form since the C18 but has its roots a century earlier in rural England
• it's typically sung a-capella and is not written with a key signature. Song leaders select an appropriate pitch at the start of the song
  
• songs are polyphonic in nature (with typically four melodic voices of equal importance)
• Sacred Harp songs use a lot of pentatonic scales (octaves based on a five note progression rather than the traditional seven). Have a listen. These scales feature in a lot of traditional folk music across Europe and Asia.
  

There's a bunch of similar material on YouTube.

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Forget the Fireworks This 4th July - Check Out the Planets!

NASA reports today (July 4th and tomorrow) an impressive planetary alignment visible with a telescope from the northern hemisphere.

The place to look, apparently, is halfway up the western skyline, just above the twilight glow of sunset, where Mars, Saturn and the bright star Regulus will converge to make a bright 1st magnitude line. I am reliably informed that this is a good thing to see. Map here.

The celestial wonders continue on Saturday when the Moon joins the line to make it even brighter. Map.

A small telescope should be able to pick out Saturn's rings, the distinct red hue of Mars and also craters and other formations on the surface of the Moon.

Although they cannot be seen by amateur telescopes, NASA also reports that the man-made craft circling these bodies at this time include the Cassini (around Saturn), Chinese and Japanese probes investigating the moon ahead of planned human landings and several craft around Mars , two from NASA and one from the European Space Agency.

Fascinating though all this is, I'm afraid as a city dweller my chances of finding some night sky free of light pollution this 4th July are remote.

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Career Move?

Looking for a job with a difference?

The EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX, for some reason) are currently recruiting up to 1,900 international staff to provide police, legal and customs services to the independent state of Kosovo.

All levels of experience needed.

Albanian not necessary.

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Kosovo - Not Yet a Done Deal

News that the EU has delayed its planned police mission to Kosovo suggests that rocky times lie ahead for Europe's newest country.

Once the mandate for the UN mission in Kosoko (UNMIK) ended in mid-June, the EU was due to take responsibility for providing a police service to help stabilise the republic during its transition to independence.

Having threatened to use its veto in the UN to stop the EU initiative, Russia has effectively blocked the establishment of the EU police force in Kosovo. The result will be months of uncertainty, during which Serbia, from whom Kosovo succeeded in February of this year, will continue to attempt to derail the emergence of a fully-fledged Kosovon state. Russia backs Serbia in its rejection of Kosovon independence.

Meanwhile, Serbia continues to try and consolidate its position over districts in northern Kosovo (which boarder Serbia and have Serb majorities.) Leposavic, Zvecan and Zubin Potok have had little input from UNMIK and, in the absence of a Kosovon or European police force, are vulnerable to Serbian annexation, a move which the US says they "absolutely oppose."

The Kosovon government, meanwhile, has come under criticism for its failure to secure sufficient recognition by other nations to be granted a place at the UN general Assembly. 97 is the number of endorsements required. So far, less than 50 countries have formerly recognised the Republic of Kosovo. Recent countries to do so include Sierra Leone and Liberia.

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NHS Faces the Challenge of Carbon Reduction

The NHS has produced a Carbon Reduction Strategy for England, highlighting how Europe's largest employer creates CO2 and what it needs to do to reduce it.

The study, which was created in partnership with the Stockholm Environment Institute, concludes that:

• Procurement (obtaining medicines, equipment and office resources) is the largest area of carbon production - accounting for 59% of carbon emissions
• Building energy use accounts for 22% of emissions
• The NHS generated 3.2% of England's total CO2 emissions in 2004

The reports recommendations are:

• The production of a strategic approach to travel plans within the NHS. Derriford Hospital in Plymouth is cited as providing an effective example of such a plan.
  
• Targeting wastage of pharmaceuticals
• Sub-metering building energy

The report covered all NHS estates and activities in England.

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My Favourite Eurovision Quote

You know a music programme has run its course when the background commentary is more memorable than than the main performances.

My favourite quote from Terry Wogan's musings at tonight's Eurovision Song Contest from Belgrade was when he was describing the Polish entry. His words were:

"She's an attractive looking woman. Though after a few minutes one's gaze is drawn to her teeth. The quantity of them, I mean. One almost feels tempted to offer her a sugar lump."

For the background to tonight's show, please click here.

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Europe Considers Outlawing Pre-Crime Troublemakers

Discussions are currently taking place between the interior ministers of Europe to restrict the movements of individuals who "pose a potential threat to the maintenance of public law and order" by prohibiting them from attending large political, sporting or cultural events.

The idea has been on the table since at least June 2001 when violent protests took place near the EU Summit in Gothenburg. The EU has now created a working party that is looking into the issue. The proposed Schengen Information System would allow for the exchange of information between member states on the identities and activities of individuals who are regarded as "troublemakers".

As of April 2008, the working party was discussing a German proposal to define such would-be offenders as those

“whom certain facts give reason to believe that they will in future commit significant criminal offences using violence or the threat of violence. A 'significant criminal offence' is one which falls into a category higher than that of petty crime, noticeably disturbs the public peace and is likely to have a considerable effect on the public’s sense of security.”

Thus defined, a "significant criminal offence" could include one that "disturbs the public peace." In theory, such actions could include a sit-down protest, a mass rally, a human blockade or a number of other non-violent forms of direct action.

Individuals potentially identified under these proposals could include those "suspected, accused or convicted of a significant criminal offence."

These are really significant words. If enacted, these policies would mean that an individual would need only be "suspected" of a significant criminal offence in order to be restrained from attending a rally or demonstration in another European country.

The German proposal goes on to define significant criminal offences more precisely:

(a) Offences involving use of force against life and limb
(b) coercion
(c) aiding and abetting the escape of a prisoner
(d) material damage to property
(e) serious trespass
(f) breach of the public peace
(g) formation of or participation in an armed group
(h) formation of or support for a criminal or terrorist organisation
(i) robbery
(j) arson
(k) causing an explosion
(l) breach of the laws on weapons
(m) incitement to hatred (insofar as the nature of the act clearly shows that the perpetrator is liable
to be violent)

Commenting on these developments, Statewatch editor Tony Bunyan says

"We can now see a pattern emerging across the EU where people who exercise their democratic right to attend cross border protests are confronted by aggressive para-military policing, surveillance, preventive detention and expulsion. This is a reflection of the EU’s definition of “security” at international events which is now defined as covering both “counter-terrorism” and “public order”.

Don't like the sound of this? Contact your MEP, if you know who they are.

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British Government Urges Biofuel Rethink

News from the Guardian (here) that Chancellor Alistair Darling is calling for an urgent review of Europe and America's use of biofuels is a welcome piece of news for those who have been concerned about the potential environmental and social harm caused by a rush to ethanol - despite its apparent "green" credentials.

The Chancellor's call - ahead of the G7 summit in June - comes amid growing international awareness of the link between, on the one hand, the increase in greenhouse gases caused by clearing land to grow crops for ethanol and, on the other, the effect on world food prices of a shift in agricultural production from traditional foodstuffs to "ethanol crops".

A previous post on this site highlighted the problems facing a number of Asian countries as the cost of rice has soared this year. Meanwhile, the increased costs of wheat, soya and other staples is triggering unrest in several African and Asian countries, with demonstrations and riots in Bangladesh, Egypt and Indonesia as well as violent protests in Ivory Coast, Senegal and Cameroon over recent weeks.

Darling is quoted in the Guardian as saying, 'If the developed world is serious about meeting the millennium development goals - and we are currently way off track - we have got to do something about rising food prices."

Tony Juniper, meanwhile, director of Friends of the Earth, has called to an immediate halt to grain-based biofuel production because the unintended consequences have become so damaging. "Policymakers have inadvertently created a competition between the drivers of big vehicles and people who do not have enough food to eat," he said.

More provocatively, a quote from David Strahans in his The Last Oil Shock: the rush to diodiesel could leave us "starving to death in a traffic jam."

All posts on the biofuel issue can be followed on this blog by clicking here.

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Bosnia - a Radically Different Prospective

For most of us who witnessed the Bosnian war in the early 1990s from a safe distance, the fault lines appeared fairly straight forward. The analysis, such as it went, read like this: Serbians bad, Croats quite bad but not as bad as the Serbs, Bosnians innocent victims.

This simplistic analysis, versions of which which informed the policy making of western governments and the editorial viewpoint of many media outlets, has been fundamentally challenged in a new book by former NSA advisor John R. Schlinder, a field agent in the former Yugoslavia at the time of the war.

An in-depth review of the book, Unholy Terror: Bosnia, Al-Qa’ida, and the Rise of Global Jihad, is available here. It's a lengthy review, but worth it for the light it sheds on the book's central thesis: that the Bosnian government of the early 90s, far from being a model of modern multi-culturalism, was Islamist in nature, committed to global jihad and linked with terror networks across the Muslim world.

Strong stuff.

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Biofuel - Europe Pauses for Thought

EU Environment Commissioner, Stavros Dimas, has admitted that the EU did not foresee the scale of the problems raised by Europe's drive towards the increased use of biofuels.

As previously reported on this blog, the EU's rush to achieve a 10% use of biofuels has inadvertently contributed to increased costs for food products (a biofuel staple) as well as causing significant environmental degradation in parts of Asia and Africa.

"We have seen that the environmental problems caused by biofuels and also the social problems are bigger than we thought they were. So we have to move very carefully," Dimas told the BBC.

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Eurovision Buries its Head in the Balkan Sand

I was worried sick.

What with all the burning of EU flags and rioting in the streets of Belgrade, I feared the worst.

With the Eurovision Song Contest only three months away, there seemed every prospect that recent political upheavals in Kosovo might jeopardize the contest, to be held in the Serbian capital on May 24th.

Thankfully, the organisers have reassured Europe's music-loving masses that, independence or not, the show must go on - in Belgrade.

The official statement from the European Broadcasting Union acknowledges that it has of course been following the recent development [sic] in Serbia but has concluded that the recent irregularities in Belgrade will not cause any delays in the event in May." Hurray!! I'd hate any irregularities - the formation of a new state or the subsequent rioting of its disaffected ethnic minority - to delay the fun.

Furthermore, we are assured, the EBU has no plans to move the 53rd contest from Belgrade and will, furthermore, obtain a security guarantee from the government of Serbia regarding a complete and absolute safety [sic] of all participants and visitors.

Phew! So no duffing up the Albanian entrant, then?

Certainly not, continues the EBU, who are giving its full support to the [host broadcaster] RTS in producing a successful Eurovision Song Contest in May.

Well, at least that's clear. I can book my flights and accommodation with a clear mind now. And I suppose that if the Serbian government can't provide "a security guarantee" for their own citizens in Kosovo, the next best thing is to provide one for the visiting musicians, singers and media types from Belgium, Latvia and Portugal.

I do wonder, however, how the Former Republic of Yugoslavia's well-rehearsed block voting will work this time and what new artistic alliances will be formed under the spotlights of the vast Belgrade Arena? Stronger-than-average antagonism towards Britain's entry on the part of Bulgaria, Serbia and Russia, methinks.

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The Logic of Kosovan Independence

Funny things happen when provinces declare independence. Other provinces start down the same path.

Perhaps it's too early in the process to hear such a call quite yet, but when US Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns is forced to comment on calls for Kosovo's northern, Serb-dominated enclaves to break away and join with Serbia proper, you know that a nationalist genie has been let out of the diplomatic bottle.

"We absolutely oppose the partition of Kosovo. And a great majority of countries around the world are not going to stand for that" announced the Secretary.

Quite right. Such a move would require a unilateral declaration of independence by the provinces of Leposavic, Zvecan and Zubin Potok and the fragmentation of a European nation state along ethnic lines, something the US and Britain would never agree to.

Ahmm.

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Oil Found in Albania, Close to Kosovo

You couldn't have made it up.

On January 10, 5 weeks before the Kosovan Parliament made its unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia - the Swiss-based Manas Petroleum Corporation broke the news. A survey of the company's exploratory fields in northern Albania had identified "large prospects" of oil and gas, close to the boarder with Kosovo.

Estimates of the find are up to 2.98 billion barrels of oil and 3.01 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, a find that Manus describes as "giant" in its official press release.

None of which, of course, had anything whatsoever to do with the enthusiastic American and British support for the new Republic of Kosovo located 50 km from the oil fields - a course of action that has set these countries on a collision course with Serbia and Russia and which has divided the European Union.

Who was it who said that America is addicted to oil?

Credit to Stephen Lendman at Indy Media for unearthing this story.

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Kosovo - is the Cold War Really Over?

With a declaration of independence expected today in Kosovo, it is worth noting how the emergence of the new state is serving the purpose of strengthening American and British interests in the region at the expense of Russia, who are strongly backing Serbia's opposition to any such unilateral declaration.

In one sense, this last twist in the tale of the dismantling of the Former Republic of Yugoslavia is evidence of the growing antagonism between Russia and "the West". Relations have turned sour over a range of issues:

• the creation of a US missile defense shield in eastern Europe - an act which Moscow has described as "provocative"
• the increase in Presidential power at the expense of the Russian Parliament and the corresponding reduction in democratic checks and balances on the President
• numerous instances of press intimidation inside Russia including the murder of several investigative journalists
• the Litvenenko affair - British authorities seeking the extradition of a former KGB agent to stand trial for the murder of a Russian exile in London
• tensions over gas and oil supplies from Russia to the west
• Western support for anti-Russian political movements in the former Soviet Union - most notably in Ukraine and Georgia
• Alleged incursions of Russian military planes into NATO air space in recent months
  

Seen against this backdrop, Western support for the new state of Kosovo is a convenient way of supporting democracy while also dealing a blow to Russian influence in the Balkans. The PR value of America and Britain supporting a Muslim-majority democracy will also not have been lost on policy makers in London and Washington.

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Best Way to Have a Large Family? Marry Your Third Cousin

Icelandic researchers studying the relationship between kinship and human fertility have concluded that the male-female relationship most likely to produce a large number of offspring (that survive infancy) is between third or fourth cousins. Relationships before or after that level of kinship produce smaller surviving batches of children during the couples' lifetime.

The authors' research into the known couples in the Icelandic population born between 1800 and 1965 suggests "a significant positive association between kinship and fertility."

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