From Cairo to the Drone Wars: how the Wheels Came off Obama's Rapprochement with the Muslim World

President Barack Obama speaks at Cairo University in Cairo, Thursday, June 4, 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Raise your hands if you can remember when President Obama used to be accused of being soft on Islamic militancy?

Me neither.

The 44th President of the United States may well go down in history not for his health care reform, but more significantly for the dramatic volte-face in his foreign policy. The change from peace-maker (remember his Nobel Prize?) to his relentless pursuit of drone-based attacks has been dramatic. Not only that, his policy of attacking suspected militants with drone-based missiles is actually contributing to the creation of new generations of Islamic militants, radicalised by the experience of silent and lethal force which has killed between 282 and 535 civilians in Pakistan alone. This total includes 60 children (source).

It is difficult to remember the early days. The President's speech - titled A New Beginning - at the University of Cairo in June 2009 was claimed by the White House to be the start of a new process of restoring relationships between America and the Muslim-majority world which had been damaged during the Bush era and following the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Some saw the speech as representing a water-shed in US-Muslim relations.  The sight of an American President talking in a conciliatory manner about the rich contributions that Islam has made to the world was favourably received in some quarters, even as it was rejected out of hand by others.

It was on the back of the speech - and his earlier New Year video message to the people of Iran - that Obama was awarded the the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2009. The Nobel Committee specifically referred to the President's "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples" and particularly his reaching out to the Muslim world.

Two turning points can be discerned in the President's approach since these early, heady days. The first was his decision to intensify the war in Afghanistan through the deployment of an additional 30,000 troops. Initial deliberations in the White House about this policy gave some encouragement to those hoping for a early US departure from the country. Critics, meanwhile, accused the Commander in Chief of weakness and dithering.

The second turning point was Libya. Although signalling early on that America would not take a lead in military action in the country, the President nonetheless ordered cruise missiles and attack aircraft to be deployed against ground and air forces loyal to Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi.  Regime change would not have been possible in Libya without American approval, participation and support.

America's co-operation during the Libya campaign with the Gulf state of Oman was significant. After the country's air force had played a crucial role in the operation, the US Defence Department concluded a treaty by which US-based Lockheed Martin supplied 18 new F-16 Fighting Falcons at a cost of $600 Million. 

America's engagement with Oman - a tiny Arab state with a vast military sector - highlighted the increasing difficulty with Obama's policy towards the Arab Spring, then in its early days. While endorsing the aspirations of those demonstrating for democratic freedoms in Egypt, the President also refused to publicly condemn the brutal suppression of those protesters who were demanding reform in the Gulf state of Bahrain. 

Increasingly hiding behind his Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, the President's Bahrain policy stemmed from his administration's fear that the old enemy Iran was fuelling the fires of protest inside the island state. Bahrain's Shia population, with historic and cultural links to Iran, were at the forefront of the protests against the embattled and pro-Western Sunni elite who dominated the government. 

When US-made M-113 Armoured Personnel Carriers rolled menacingly across the road bridge that links Saudi Arabia with Bahrain, Obama was mute at the use of foreign military forces to put down a pro-democratic uprising. With a vast US military base in Bahrain, America simply could not run the risk of endorsing a possible takeover by a population with close links to Iran, even if such a democratic moment was in line with the President's stated policy in his Cairo speech of supporting democratic movements in the region.

With Afghanistan and Libya as hard lessons in realpolitik, the increasingly embattled President, whose domestic policy endeavours were being thwarted by a hostile Republican-Congress, began to broaden the scope of his military interventions.

Here was an area of Presidential power not hampered by internal partisan bickering. As Commander-in-Chief he had exactly what he lacked in his domestic agenda - the power to command and achieve dramatic results.

The daring raid into Pakistani sovereign territory in order to kill Osama bin Laden must have felt like an affirmation that such bold military moves were the way forward. Ignoring the legal niceties of invading a foreign country with whom they were not at war, the bin-Laden success seems to have emboldened the President. Despite no declaration of war, military activities were ramped up in Yeman and Somalia, with apparently scant regard for the killing of innocent civilians in the process.

Obama's drone wars have, since their early days in Afghanistan, expanded dramatically. US drone strikes are often controlled by operators thousands of miles away in American bases in Nevada and have resulted in hundreds if not thousands of deaths. Statistics compiled by those watching with concern the escalation in the drone wars indicate that drone attacks are now occurring about once every four days inside Pakistan.

There are several worrying developments with this drone war policy. Firstly, the weapons are killing innocent civilians. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism reports that over 3,000 people have been killed by drones inside Pakistan since 2004. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, it has also calculated that between 282 and 535 civilians have been credibly reported as killed in drone attacks inside the country since Obama took office.

Secondly, the use of drones is contributing to rather than reducing the rise of Islamic militancy among those populations affected by the drone-borne missiles. A recent report by Stanford Law School and the New York University School of Law highlights the psychological effects on the civilian population of those living in the areas attacked by US drones. 

This from the report Living Under Drones:

In the United States, the dominant narrative about the use of drones in Pakistan is of a surgically precise and effective tool that makes the US safer by enabling “targeted killing” of terrorists, with minimal downsides or collateral impacts. This narrative is false......

"This report presents evidence of the damaging and counterproductive effects of current US drone strike policies...."

One of the few accounts of living under drones ever published in the US comes from a former New York Times journalist who was kidnapped by the Taliban. He reports:

“The drones were terrifying. From the ground, it is impossible to determine who or what they are tracking as they circle overhead. The buzz of a distant propeller is a constant reminder of imminent death.”

Living Under Drones describes how

"Community members, mental health professionals, and journalists described how the constant presence of US drones overhead leads to substantial levels of fear and stress in the civilian communities below....".

"Another interviewee who lost both his legs in a drone attack said that “[e]veryone is scared all the time. When we’re sitting together to have a meeting, we’re scared there might be a strike. When you can hear the drone circling in the sky, you think it might strike you. We’re always scared. We always have this fear in our head.”

Another described the effect of the drones as causing a "wave of terror" among the civilian population of north-west Pakistan.




It is difficult to imagine how US-Muslim relations could be made any worse than by pursuing a policy that traumatizes the civilian population of Pakistan, leading to parents keeping their children away from school for fear of attack by unseen unmanned American aircraft.

The President's policy of openness and engagement with the Muslim-majority world has come a long way since the heady days of his Cairo University speech. It is a tragedy that the direction of travel has been in the wrong direction. 

   

  

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Iran: be Careful What you Wish For

Getting Iran to say 'uncle' might not be smart | Stephen M. Walt:

In this scenario [sanctions], a tightening vise of economic pressure will convince Iran to do what the late Muammar Qaddafi did in Libya in 2003 and abandon any interest in a nuclear capability. Unfortunately for us, Tehran has probably noticed what happened to him, which makes it less likely that they'd ever surrender in quite the same way.

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Cyber attack 'targeted Iran' - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

Image via Wikipedia

Cyber attack 'targeted Iran' - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

I don't recall reading this story in the western press, but Kaspersky Labs, no less (who provide the security systems for Barclays Bank customers) have described the recent Stuxnet trojan (which has infected machines around the world, but particularly in Iran) as "a working and fearsome prototype of a cyber-weapon....Stuxnet manifests the beginning of the new age of cyber-warfare."

The company's official news site goes on to say, "We believe this type of attack could only be conducted with nation-state support and backing."

"It's pretty clear that based on the infection behaviour that installations in Iran are being targeted," says Kevin Hogan, the senior director of Security Response at Symantec, according to Reuters.

So, a cyber attack against Iranian energy installations. Conducted with nation-state backing.

Who could be behind that, I wonder?

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Iranian Elections: The ‘Stolen Elections’ Hoax

Iranian Elections: The ‘Stolen Elections’ Hoax

Retired Amerian Academic James Petras explains why he thinks the Iranian presidential election of 2009 was not "stolen" as the majority of western media and governments claim.

Meanwhile, Professor Mohamed Mirandi of Tehran University explains (via Al-Jazeera) his perspective on this weekend's executions of two of last summer's protesters against the election result.

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Guinea, Guns and BAE Systems

To nobody's great surprise, recent atrocities in the west African country of Guinea, when civilians opposed to Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara's military junta were attacked, killed and raped by soldiers loyal to the regime, have an indirect link to BAE Systems.

Eye witness reports of the 29th September massacre, when 157 people were reportedly killed at a rally calling for Camara to not take part in Presidential elections planned for next January, describe some of the weapons and equipment used by army units as they unleashed a brutal attack upon the crowd of 50,000 at a football stadium in the capital Conakry.

These reports include descriptions of:

• French-made Cougar grenade launchers, whose sale to Guinea were authorised by the French government in 2007
• Mamba Mine Protected Vehicles, built by BAE Systems and reportedly sold to the Guinea regime through a South African intermediary company

Since the September massacre, during which widespread rape is reported to have taken place, Amnesty International have called for an immediate suspension of all weapons and arms supplies to Guinea.

A participant within the armed forces who took part in the September massacre has described the army as being leaderless and in a state of chaos. He also claims that elements from neighbouring Liberia are operating at middle ranking levels within the Guinea army.

Human Rights Watch reported in 2003 that Guinea was used as a major transit route for illegal arms shipments to the Muslim-majority LURD rebel group in their conflict with the government of Charles Taylor between 1999 and 2003. The report claims that these arms shipments originated in the Ukraine and Iran.

To add to the complexity, the military junta in Guinea has, since the massacre, announced a $7billion mineral rights deal with the People's Republic of China.

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Iranian Election: no Excuse for Western Agitation

Watching the scenes of Iranians protesting in Tehran after the re-election of President Ahmadinejad and noting the predictions (on the BBC , for instance) of on-going antagonism between his government and those of Britain and the United States, I am reminded of the words of an Iranian friend currently seeking asylum in the UK.

When I asked him once whether he thought the United States would ever fight a war against Iran, my friend said that he doubted that would happen as the American government should be aware of the Iranian people's long history in unifying against foreign invaders - the country having successfully resisted all attempts at military conquest since 1501.

Instead, my friend said, he believed that if President Ahmadinejad continued in his provoactive stance towards the west, the Americans would attempt to ferment civil unrest within the country and seek to bring down the government in that way. In that scenario, thousands of Iranian civilians would be killed by the police and security services in the uprising. This, in effect, would, accoring to my friend, represent a proxy war fought against the Iranian government with Iranian civilians serving as the foot soldiers, with no loss of American lives and with no significant political damage if the uprising failed in its (American) aim of achieving regime change inside Iran.

Let's hope for the sake of thousands of innocent Iranian civilians that Mr Panetta and his colleagues at the CIA show the restraint needed to not contribute to such a bloodbath.

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Iran Mosque Bombing: an American Role?

The group or groups blamed for today's bombing of a Shia mosque in southern Iran are, according to former CIA operative Robert Baer, among those who during the Bush era received Congressional funding for their terrorist operations.

The full story is here.

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Iran Claims Swine Flu Originated in America

If you enjoy reading your news between the lines, there is a great piece here from the Iranian news agency Press TV quoting the US Center for Disease Control and Protection (CDC) who say that cases of the H1N1 virus were reported in the state of California several weeks before the first reported outbreaks in Mexico.

"The patients," the report says "had neither been to Mexico nor had they come into contact with pigs."

So there.




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Drugs and Sport - an Iranian Tale

The assumption in the west, I imagine, is that there are few users of hard drugs inside the Islamic Republic of Iran and that those caught are are routinely beheaded or at least loose a limb.

The experience of Abbas Amir-Mafi, however, tells a quite different story.

Born in the south of Tehran, Abbas was addicted to opium by the age of 12, having started drinking alcohol about age 6. He was until a few years ago one of several hundred thousand drug users in the country, Iran having one of the highest levels of opiate abuse in the world.

After years trying to break free of the addiction, Abbas was put in contact with Congress 60, an Iranian non-profit organisation which uses sport to help addicts. Uniquely among Iran's other drug treatment providers, Congress 60 does not use methadone but advocates instead a gradual reduction of the narcotic alongside a programme of sporting activities to help develop personal and life skills.

Head of the organisation, Engineer Dezhakam (himself a recovering addict) introduced Abbas to archery. "I didn't like it in the beginning," he says. "The daily practice was tough. But I began to see improvement after a month and realized I could do it."

Remarkably, Abbas now competes as part of Iran's national team and says that "I hope one day to compete abroad." He trains for 6-7 hours a day and is drug free. His story raises interesting questions about the opportunities for those who have misused drugs in their past to not only rehabilitate but also to take part in competitive sport at an international level - an issue highlighted in the UK by the recent attempt by Dwain Chambers to overturn the BDA's ban on him participating in the Beijing Olympics this summer.

Over the years, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, the Government of Iran has shifted from a predominantly restrictive drug policy toward a strategy that gives importance to demand and harm reduction.

A growing number of NGOs provide treatment and there is a growing level of cooperation with the relevant government ministries.

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US Aiding Al-Qaeda Inside Iran

Murky, Byzantine, call it what you will. The simple fact is that as the Bush administration winds down towards the end of its second term, pressure for a "regime change" inside Iran is intensifying.

The result, according to one former middle east CIA operative, is that the United States is actively funding resistance groups inside Iran who oppose the current regime. In a tragic repeat of the failed US policy in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the Bush administration is trying to undermine the Iranian government by supporting groups with ideological and structural links to Al-Qaeda.

The policy has emerged following last year's decision by the US Congress to provide up to $400 million for "covert operations" inside Iran aimed at gathering intelligence on Iran's nuclear-weapons programme and also destabilizing the country's religious leadership through the active support of a number of radical and minority opposition movements.

The operations are jointly carried out by the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and involve partnerships with organisations that under normal circumstances would be enemies in America's war on terror. These include:

• Baluchi nationalists - described by former CIA operative Robert Baer as "Sunni fundamentalists who hate the regime in Tehran" and who also "cut off the heads of nonbelievers - in this case Shiite Iranians." Baluchi Sunni fundamentalists include Ramzi Yousef, jailed for his role in the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993 and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, one of the masterminds behind 9/11. Baer goes on to say, "The irony is that we’re once again working with Sunni fundamentalists, just as we did in Afghanistan in the nineteen-eighties.”

• The Iranian People's Resistance Movement, also known as the Jundallah, is, according to Vali Nasr of Tufts University, “ a vicious Salafi organization whose followers attended the same madrases as the Taliban and Pakistani extremists. They are suspected of having links to Al Qaeda and they are also thought to be tied to the drug culture.” (As an aside, recent drugs raids inside Iran may be part of the ongoing battle between the government and Jundallah.)

• The M.E.K. (Mujahideen-e-Khalq) has been on the State Department’s terrorist list for more than ten years and yet at present is allegedly in receipt of arms and intelligence from the United States in its proxy war against the Tehran government

• The Kurdish PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan) has been operating against Iran from bases in northern Iraq for several years and is also in receipt of funding from the US. In recent weeks, there has been a marked increase in the number of PJAK armed engagements with Iranian police and military units.

Source: New Yorker

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Second US Aircraft Carrier Arrives in Persian Gulf

The Pentagon's PR department has announced that the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf does not represent an escalation of American forces.

And meanwhile the Dali Lama has renounced Buddhism and has taken up a new career as a thrash metal guitarist.

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American Ship Fires on Small Boats in Persian Gulf

Further evidence of the build up to war?

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Chris de Burgh to Play in Tehran?

Irish singer Chris de Burgh will visit Iran in May before making a final decision on whether to perform there later in the year with local group Arian.

His Persian partners, with whom he was recored previously, are featured below.

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OPEC to Trade in Euros?

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri is quoted in the Middle East Economic Digest as suggesting that the world's oil producers may switch from the dollar to the Euro as the international currency for oil transactions in the future.

Citing the declining strength of the dollar in the world markets, El-Badri has suggested that such a move could take place "within ten years".

American fears over such a move (which would significantly weaken the strength of the US dollar as its demand fell) have been intensified in recent weeks with the expected-opening of the Oil Bourse in Iran which, uniquely among markets trading in gas, oil and petrochemicals, will be a dollar-free zone, with transactions taking place in a variety of other currencies.

The opening of the Oil Bousre has been delayed due to recent disruptions to the Internet as a result of the severing of a number of cables in the seas around Iran and North Africa - a development reported on previously on this blog.

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Non-Alligned Fashion Statement

That is one cool scarf being worn by Rodolfo Sanz, Venezuelan Minister of Basic Industry and Mining during a recent meeting in Tehran with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.









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Has a War on Iran Already Started?

Bloggers and independent media outlets are increasingly asking questions about the suspicious cutting of not one but four undersea communications cables in the seas around Iran, significantly degrading the country's Internet capability days before the launch of its Oil Bourse - a commodities market for trading in oil, gas and petrochemicals in non-US dollars. The opening of the Bourse, located on the Persian Gulf Island of Kish was, according to Tehran-based Press TV, likely to significantly challenge the hegemony of the US dollar in global oil markets.

The cutting of the British-owned cables began last week in the Mediterranean, 8 kilometers north of the Egyptian city of Alexandria, with damage to two cables initially reported. Egypt's Ministry of Communications ruled out on Sunday the possibility of a ship having caused the damage, saying that "a marine transport committee investigated the traffic of ships in the area 12 hours before and after the malfunction ... and found that there were no passing ships at that time."

Further damage to undersea fiber optic cable was subsequently reported in the Suez canal on Friday and the Persian Gulf on Monday. The Internet Traffic Report which monitors the flow of web traffic around the world was today reporting a 100% packet loss to Iran's Internet infrastructure, resulting in a complete loss of Internet connectivity to the nation.

Omar Sultan, chief executive of Dubai's Internet Service Provider "DU", is quoted in Indymedia as describing the incidents, which have severely disrupted Internet usage across the Middle East as "very unusual” and that the cause of the incident "had not yet been identified."

Meanwhile, Mathaba news is claiming that Internet connections to Israel and Iraq has been unaffected by the incidents. The damaged cables are understood to be operated by UK-based Flag Telecom.

Many independent media outlets and bloggers see America as behind the disruption. German blogger hadez sees the multiple incidents as beyond coincidence and links the attacks to the start of Cyber Storm 2 in March - a massive multi-million dollar online simulated war game planned by the US military. The war game will simulate multiple terrorist attacks on US electronic infrastructure.

In an apparently separate development, China View, an English-language media outlet is quoting White House spokesman Dana Perrino as describing Iran's recent launch of a rocket into space as "unfortunate".

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Noam Chomsky on World Ownership

Follow the link above for a major interview with the American writer, linguist and commentator on the state of American foreign policy.

His key claim: American foreign policy is governed by a belief in American ownership of the world.

A good read.

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Andranik Teymourian

Football fans around the world have been surprised to see Iranian international footballer (now playing with Bolton Wanderers) Andranik Teymourian routinely crossing himself as he leaves the field of play.

The only non-Moslem player in the Iran national team, Teymourian is from the country's small Armenian minority who are historically Orthodox Christians.

Iranian Christians have historically been members of this ethnic-religious minority or of ethnic Greek ancestry. In recent years, increasing numbers of Iranians have become born-again Christians. Many are asylum seekers living in Western Europe and are from a Moslem background. A previous post illustrates this trend.

The existing ethnic-Christian minorities are tolerated in Iran. Conversion from Islam, however, is a criminal offense punishable by long prison sentences or death. Issa Motamedi Mojdehi (pictured) is one such convert, currently awaiting charges related to his conversion 7 years ago. Despite imprisonment and death threats to his family, he remains committed to his Christian faith.

One Divided by Three

The case for partition of Iraq as the only viable political solution to the chaos. An articulate argument by Peter W Galbraith of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington DC.

read more | digg story

Why They Come

While out for a walk in the countryside last weekend I came across an unusual site. A group of about 50 Iranians were standing next to a lake in Sussex witnessing the baptism of two adults who had converted to Christianity from Islam.

The man baptizing them was himself a church leader in Iran until a few years ago when he had to flee the country. His brother was executed by the Iranian authorities on account of his active Christian commitment.

With all the debate about migration, European enlargement and asylum seekers, it is important to not forget that one reason so many people move to the UK is to seek basic religious and human freedoms - in this case, the freedom to believe and worship according to your conscience rather than the dictates of the state.

Apparently, the vast majority of this group were former Muslims who are now Christians and who belong to a Christian church in London. To convert in their home country would mean certain imprisonment: to attempt to tell a Muslim the Christian message is to face the death penalty.

As well as celebrating the power of the gospel, I was also thankful to live in a country with such a long history of protecting human rights.